Have you ever heard that if you’ve lost several games in a row, you’ll eventually make a profit if you keep betting? Or that one of the best roulette strategies is to bet double every time you lose?
Does good management of your budget ensure anything?
The difference between roulette and games of chance and other types of gambling, such as poker, is that in games of chance you are competing against a machine. Against the house, not against other people.
In betting against other opponents, you can win or lose, but you both have a 50% chance of success.
However, in a game of chance your expected value of success will always be negative, and this is due to the house edge. No matter how much you try to play with your budget or bankroll and leave a margin to compensate for negative streaks, even if you limit yourself to losing a maximum of $20 a day you will ultimately lose everything. This is a mathematical statistic.
Therefore, as soon as you win a prize, the best thing to do is to stop playing immediately.
Confusing the probability of winning with the expected value of the bets
Or, what amounts to the same thing: confusing statistical calculations with the odds of winning.
The only parameter of the game that gives us the possibility to modify the roulette tendency is the speed of the game.
In this respect, we have two options:
- Betting with a Martingale-type strategy, with a progression of 10, so that we can win almost every time and add chips one by one little by little; but that the few times we lose, it is a large amount of chips.
- Make an aggressive bet on a specific number so that we will constantly lose a lot of chips, but the few times we win, we will get a large amount of chips.
- Another such method is to bet on all the numbers except 0 and 1. By betting the same amount on each square, we get the false illusion that the winning percentage would be over 90%.
The problem is that this % confuses the statistical calculations (the expected value of the bets) with the actual odds of success.
The betting limit and the maximum bet amount
Most roulette tricks are based on multiplying bets with various formulas when you lose, to compensate winning spins with losing spins.
Such strategies have two problems:
- Many casinos (physical or virtual) do not allow you to double your bets more than a certain number of times (usually 7). And although it may seem like a lot of times in a row, because of the odds, the same colour coming up more than 7 times in a row is much more common than you might think.
- This means that with a method like the Martingale you can win coin by coin little by little, and in an apparently safe way, but when the time comes to lose (which is inevitable), you lose everything you have won before, plus 2.7% of the money bet.
- Even if a casino does not have a limit of 7 bets in a row: doubling your bets has a snowball effect: the amount gets bigger and bigger and will inevitably reach the maximum bet amount allowed by a casino (bet limit), or until you run out of money.
As you can see, the statistic comes true, yes or yes. It may come true on the 1000 ball or on the 2,389,387 ball, but it will come true. No method works because the statistic is that the bank wins a specific % and it will win sooner or later.
It is very legitimate that you want to play your luck in roulette or in the casino game that most attracts and amuses you; but be clear about one thing: roulette is a game of chance, in which the expected value of your bets is always negative. Therefore, the more you play, the more chances you have of losing.
The best thing to do then is, in order to extend the game, to use strategies that ensure that you can enjoy the game for a longer period of time.